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Prediction shares usually sit idle for days or weeks until the event resolves. On Vanna they earn.

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Pairing

For any one market, 1 Yes share + 1 No share always pays exactly **1∗∗atresolution,whateverhappens.SoaYes/Nopairisasgoodas1** at resolution, whatever happens. So a Yes/No pair is as good as 1 of USDC. Vanna uses that:
1

Your shares go into Vanna's pool

When you buy on Predict, your shares are deposited into Vanna’s outcome pool for that market in the same approval.
2

Yes and No are paired

The pool matches Yes shares against No shares held in it (from you and from other users).
3

Pairs are merged into USDC and lent

Each pair is merged back into $1 of USDC and that USDC is supplied to Vanna’s USDC lending pool, where it earns the pool’s supply rate.
4

Yield comes back as extra shares

The interest is paid to you as extra shares of the side you hold. Because it’s extra Yes (or No) shares, the yield pays out only if your side wins.
Shares that can’t be paired yet (more Yes than No in the pool, or the reverse) are waiting: they’re held safely but don’t earn until the other side arrives.

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Reading the numbers

The side that’s scarcer in the pool earns more, because each of its shares backs more of the pool’s pairs.

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Risks

  • The yield is paid in shares of your side, so if your side loses, the yield is worth $0 along with it.
  • The pool’s USDC is lent through Vanna’s USDC pool and carries that pool’s risks (see For Liquidity Providers).
  • Rates move with the USDC pool’s supply APY and with how balanced Yes and No are.